Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-11 0.328674 0.382235 0.440464 0.508302 0.584987 0.668807 0.767174
2025-05-18 0.237581 0.303151 0.380088 0.476428 0.593186 0.729423 0.899676
2025-05-25 0.170957 0.239118 0.325284 0.440881 0.590398 0.775612 1.020521
2025-06-01 0.130264 0.199598 0.293886 0.429024 0.614832 0.858045 1.196532
2025-06-08 0.098484 0.165761 0.264291 0.415101 0.635184 0.938866 1.382389
2025-06-15 0.079677 0.146902 0.252592 0.424640 0.689850 1.073679 1.658867
2025-06-22 0.058439 0.119229 0.222511 0.402116 0.695393 1.141316 1.851647
2025-06-29 0.043914 0.099238 0.200767 0.389029 0.713814 1.231055 2.089138
2025-07-06 0.032609 0.081978 0.180021 0.373914 0.727018 1.315189 2.329614
2025-07-13 0.026395 0.073222 0.173134 0.382385 0.781938 1.473766 2.707168
2025-07-20 0.020481 0.063146 0.161329 0.379527 0.816734 1.603776 3.053878
2025-07-27 0.016267 0.055666 0.153232 0.382643 0.863524 1.760853 3.464671
2025-08-03 0.012719 0.048734 0.145153 0.385619 0.913572 1.935297 3.934854
2025-08-10 0.009033 0.039536 0.128879 0.367008 0.917400 2.025904 4.267522
2025-08-17 0.006188 0.031326 0.112363 0.343845 0.907780 2.090233 4.560910
2025-08-24 0.004582 0.026560 0.103844 0.338605 0.937387 2.237200 5.029887
2025-08-31 0.003327 0.022272 0.095166 0.330846 0.960158 2.373772 5.494883
2025-09-07 0.002675 0.020267 0.093280 0.341808 1.030594 2.620925 6.209346
2025-09-14 0.001830 0.016387 0.083096 0.325679 1.030429 2.714586 6.618670
2025-09-21 0.001294 0.013655 0.075937 0.316867 1.047859 2.850315 7.131653
2025-09-28 0.000892 0.011236 0.068781 0.305929 1.057597 2.969794 7.622473
2025-10-05 0.000703 0.010215 0.067366 0.314538 1.124192 3.232391 8.454232
2025-10-12 0.000515 0.008847 0.063544 0.313377 1.162380 3.430715 9.160463